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Betting On Negative Odds

scalmencaudif1974 2021. 6. 10. 01:20


The D'Alembert System is one of the simplest negative betting systems. According to experts, it has some similar characteristics of the Martingale system. As any other negative progression betting system, it involves increasing the wager after a loss is generated, and reducing the bet after a win. To convert a negative money line to decimal odds, start with the number 100 and divide it by the number in the money line, then add 1. Negative Figures (-): The odds indicate how much must be bet to win $100 profit. Ex: American odds of -120 would win $100 on a $120 bet. Decimals quote the potential return should the bet succeed, relative to the stake. If $10 is bet at odds of 4, the total returned is $40 ($10 x 4) and the potential profit is $30 ($10 x 4 minus. If the odd is negative (-) it means that outcome is more likely to happen and placing a bet on that outcome would payout less than the amount you wagered, while a positive (+) odd shows that the outcome is less likely to happen and it would pay out more than the amount you wagered.

In the world of sports betting the first thing you will need to learn is to read and understand the odds. There are three traditional ways that online sports betting sites display odds. They include American, Decimal, and Fractional.

Regardless of how the odds are displayed, they’ll always mean the same thing. Watching the UFC, the odds format they talk is American Odds or Vegas Odds. Essentially what they are is the percentage of one outcome against another.

You can use our UFC Odds Calculator to work out percentages yourself.

We have a live odds tool on our site that you’ll notice on lots of our pages. We post live odds in American and Decimal format, but we don’t list live odds in the Fractional format.

The reason we don’t list live odds using Fractions on our site is that we don’t want to confuse bettors. Fraction odds are becoming more extinct every year, and many online sportsbooks have stopped posting odds using fractional odds entirely.

The betting odds are one of the most important factors in deciding on whether to bet on a game or not. If you study a UFC fight and determine that Jon Jones has a 60% chance of beating Mauricio Rua, then you’re going to need to find out if the odds are better than that.

Using our 60% example, we need to check to see if the odds are going to allow us to be profitable if Jones does win 60% of the time in this fight. You can use our betting calculator to check what the odds mean in percentage terms.

To break even betting on an outcome that is predicted to hit at a 60% rate you need to be getting odds of -150. If you’re getting better odds, i.e., -150 to a positive number (+100), then it’s a +EV bet to make, and you should place the bet.

We’re going to explain how to read the three different types of betting odds below, so make sure you check out both the American and Decimal formats if you don’t know how to read them yet.

American Betting Odds Explained

  • Jon Jones -205 vs. Mauricio Rua +165

American odds are shown using whole numbers above 100, and they can have a positive or negative value. When the odds have a negative value, the odds will be presented with a (-) in front of the number whereas when the odds have a positive value they will have a (+) sign in front of the odds.

To understand how much you can make you need to remember one rule. When the odds are positive (+), the number reflects how much you’ll make on a $100 wager whereas if the odds are negative (-), the number reflects how much you need to bet to win $100 profit.

If you bet on Jones at -205 you need to risk $205 to win $100 profit and if you bet on Rua to win you’d win $165 profit for every $100 you bet.

The fighter with the negative value is ‘usually’ considered the favorite, and if both fighters have a negative value, then the fighter with the higher number is the favorite.

E.g:

  • Fighter A: -105
  • Fighter B: -109

Fighter B is considered the favorite in this matchup.

It’s rare for two fighters in MMA to both have negative value odds, but it does happen when two extremely evenly matched fighters fight against each other.

Decimal Betting Odds Explained

  • Jon Jones 1.49 vs. Mauricio Rua 2.65

Decimal odds are used in most countries outside of North America, so we include decimal odds on our site for punters. Decimal odds are also known as European odds.

To understand decimal odds you always need to remember that your stake and profit are included in the odds. For instance, Jon Jones is favored to win the fight at 1.49 odds. If you bet $100 on Jones at 1.49, you’d win $149 back, which includes your stake and profits.

You’d win your $100 back plus make $49 profit.

If you bet on the underdog Rua in the fight for $100 at odds of 2.65 you’d win back $265, which includes your $100 stake plus $165 in profit.

To find out how much you can win using decimal odds you multiply the odds by how much you want to bet.

Fractional Betting Odds Explained

  • Jon Jones 49/100 vs. Mauricio Rua 33/20

We want to say that we believe fractional odds are going to become less used, and therefore we don’t recommend using them unless you’re betting on horses.

If you’re betting on MMA, you should use Decimal odds, as every bookie offers Decimal odds and they’re easy to use when trying to figure out your profit.

If you need to be able to read fraction odds, they’re simple. The 1st number in the fraction is how much you’re paid out based on the 2nd number, which is how much you need to stake.

For instance, if you bet on Jones at 49/100 odds you need to calculate 49/100 x “Wager Amount” to come up with how much you’ll make. If you bet $100 (49/100 x $100 = $49) you’d make $49 plus receive your $100 stake back.

Money lines (also called American Odds) are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. They do not use a point spread, and are straight-up bets on who will win the game or event.

To properly explain how to bet the money line, the first thing to understand is the difference between a negative and positive money line. Both money lines use $100 as the basis point for calculating payouts, but they’re calculated differently.

How to Calculate Money Line Payouts

A negative money line is indicated with a ‘-‘ in front of a number, like -230. The number represents the amount of money that would need to be wagered in order to win $100 in profit. So, a -230 money line would require a wager of $230 to win $100 more, for a total payout of $330 ($230 wager + $100 profit). Of course a $230 bet is not required, it’s just the basis for calculating the payout. With odds of -230, a $23 bet would return $10 in profit, or a $2.30 bet would return $1 in profit.

A positive money line is indicated with a ‘+’ in front of a number. In this case, the number represents the amount that would be won from a $100 wager. So, a +170 money line means that a $100 wager would return $170 in profit, for a total payout of $270 ($100 wager + $170 profit = $270). A bet of $10 would result in a $17 profit, and a total payout of $27 ($10 wager + $17 profit = $27).

More About Negative Lines

Generally a negative money line represents the favored team in a match. There are exceptions to this and we’ll discuss that later. For now, think negative money line = favorite.

In most two-team games like football, baseball or soccer, one team will have a negative money line, and the opponent will have a positive money line. The team with a negative money line is the favorite, and the team with the positive money line is the underdog.

Example:

  • New England Patriots +140
  • Indianapolis Colts -160

In this case, the Colts are the favorite. It would take a bet of $16 to win $10 in profit, for a total payout of $26 ($16 wagered + $10 profit = $26). For the Patriots, as the underdog, it would only take a bet of $10 to win $14 in profit, for a total payout of $24 ($10 wager + $14 profit = $24).

Since the favored team is considered more likely to win, and because no handicap is being used, it takes a larger wager to win a smaller profit on them.

More About Positive Lines

In a 2-team game where one team has a positive money line, they are always the underdog. Since they’re underdogs, it requires a smaller wager to win a larger profit.

Example:

  • Pittsburgh Penguins +130
  • New York Rangers -150

In this case, a bet of $10 on the Penguins would result in a $13 profit if they win, for a total payout of $23 ($10 wager + $13 profit = $23). For the Rangers, it would take a bet of $15 to win $10 in profit, for a $25 total payout ($15 wager + $10 profit = $25).

Games Where Both Teams Are Negative

In games like baseball or football, it’s not uncommon to see both teams represented with a negative money line. When this happens, it means the teams are very closely matched.

For Example:

  • New York Yankees -113
  • Boston Red Sox -107

In the scenario above, the game is considered very close, with a slight edge towards the Yankees. It would require a bet of $113 to win $100 on the Yankees, or $107 bet to win $100 on the Red Sox.

Sports With Multiple Teams or Competitors

Of course there are sports with multiple competitors in a single event, like horse racing, Olympic events, and golf. This is also the case in futures bets, where the handicapper is choosing between multiple teams to win a seasonal champion.

In this case, there will generally be one favorite, indicated with a negative money line, and the rest of the field will have positive money lines. Sometimes, when there are no clear favorites, there may not be a single competitor with a negative money line. In this case, the competitor with the lowest positive money line is favored.

Example:

Tiger Woods +600
Phil Mickelson +850
Martin Kaymer +1300
Lee Westwood +1600
Steve Stricker +2300

In this case, Tiger Woods is the favorite, but he has a positive money line. A bet of $10 on him would result in a $60 profit if he wins. A bet of $10 on Steve Stricker would result in a $230 profit if he were to win.

Converting Moneyline Odds to Fractional Odds

We all learned how to do fractions in elementary school, and once you understand money line odds, the conversions are simple.

How to Convert Positive Money Lines to Fractional Odds

To convert a positive money line into fractional odds, divide the number in the money line by 100.

Examples:

  • +250 Money Line: 250/100 = 2.5/1 (5/2) Fractional Odds
  • +400 Money Line: 400/100 = 4/1 Fractional Odds
  • +650 Money Line: 650/100 = 6.5/1 (13/2) Fractional Odds

How to Convert Negative Lines to Fractional Odds

To convert negative money lines to fractional odds, divide the number in the money line by 100. Put that number on the right side of a fraction which begins with ‘1/’. Some numbers on the right side of the fraction will have a decimal in them. Since decimals are not used in fractional odds, they are removed by multiplying both numbers in the fraction by 2.

Examples:

  • -200 Money Line: 200/100 = 2. Put the 2 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/2.
  • -350 Money Line: 350/100 = 3.5. Put the 3.5 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/3.5. Multiply both numbers in the fraction by 2 to remove the decimal = 2/7 fractional odds.
  • -650 Money Line: 650/100 = 6.5. Put the 6.5 on the right side of a fraction beginning with 1/, resulting in fractional odds of 1/6.5. Multiply both numbers in the fraction by 2 to remove the decimal = 2/13 fractional odds.

Converting to Decimal Odds

Negative

Betting On Negative Odds Ncaa Basketball

Positive money lines show the profit that would be won from a $100 bet, not including the original wager. Negative money lines show the wager required to win $100 in profit. Neither of these reflect the total payout. This is different in decimal odds.

Using decimal odds, a handicapper can easily calculate their entire payout. For example, a team with decimal odds of 3.0 would be multiplied by the wager amount to calculate the entire payout. A $20 bet with 3.0 decimal odds would pay out a total of $60 ($20 x 3.0 = $60).

The calculation to convert a positive money line to decimal odds is different from the calculation of a negative money line to decimal odds. Here’s how they convert:

How to Convert a Positive Money Line to Decimal Odds

To convert a positive money line to decimal odds, divide the money line by 100, then add 1.

Examples:

  • +200 / 100 = 2 + 1 = 3.0 Decimal Odds
  • +350 /100 = 3.5 +1 = 4.5 Decimal Odds
  • +625 / 100 = 6.25 +1 = 7.25 Decimal Odds

Negative Lines to Decimal Odds

To convert a negative money line to decimal odds, start with the number 100 and divide it by the number in the money line, then add 1.

Examples:

  • -200 Money Line: 100 / 200 = .5 +1 = 1.5 Decimal Odds
  • -350 Money Line: 100 / 350 = .286 +1 = 1.286 (1.29) Decimal Odds

Reading Sports Odds

  • -625 Money Line: 100 / 625 = .16 +1 = 1.16 Decimal Odds

Pros & Cons of Money Line Bets

When compared to a point spread, for the underdog, the benefit of a money line bet is the increased odds a handicapper receives. For the favorite, the benefit is that no handicap is given to the underdog, making it more likely their bets will win.

Why Would You Bet On Negative Odds

For the underdog, the negative is that they don’t receive a handicap, making it more difficult to win these bets. For the favorite, the negative is that the punter receives lower odds than they do when they’re giving up points on the spread.

Comparing the money line to the run line in baseball or puck line in hockey, the benefit ‘can’ be slightly reduced juice (vig, or commission). For example, many online sportsbooks charge a 5% vig on baseball or hockey money line bets. However, it’s harder to find reduced juice on run lines and puck lines, where punters normally pay 10% vig. Over the course of a season and a lot of bets, 5% can be the difference of being a winning or losing handicapper.

Money lines are the most popular way to bet on MLB baseball and NHL hockey, so the lines can move dramatically from the time they’re posted to the time they close. If you know how to watch lines move and predict where they’re going, money lines can offer a lot of value. For example, when betting on big underdogs in baseball, the best money line odds can often be found as soon as the lines open – before other bettors see the same value you do and bring the odds down. For big favorites, it’s often best to wait until 1-2 hours before game time. For big games with a lot of action, sharp bettors often place big wagers just before a game, which can also create optimal betting opportunities.

Betting On Negative Odds Against

For casual bettors, money line bets are easier to make. There is no point spread to mull over, and all that matters is that you choose the winner.